Earth observation indicators as the key to unlock the Global Goal on Adaptation framework

The 30^th Conference of the Parties (COP30), held in Belém (Pará, Brazil), is strategically focused on implementation, with the challenge of creating a definitive, measurable framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Directly addressing this issue, a new ESA Φ-lab co-led article published in Nature offers a timely intervention, showing how satellite-based Earth observation data can provide the objective, globally consistent indicators needed to achieve climate resilience. 

10 November marked the start of the 30^th Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belém, Pará, Brazil’s gateway to the Amazon rainforest. Regarded as a key point in the global climate agenda, COP30 is shifting the focus from ambition to implementation and accountability, to make the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) framework finally operational.

Established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, GGA seeks to improve the ability to cope with climate impacts, build systems that can withstand shocks, and reduce susceptibility to climate hazards. With negotiations culminating on a final set of indicators to measure the progress towards this goal, the success of the summit will lie on implementing a scientifically robust and actionable framework.

Directly addressing GGA – and with a perfect timing – a new ESA Φ-lab co-led article, “Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators”, has just been published in Nature.  This article is the result of the ‘Using Earth Observation Systems to Improve Climate Adaptation Policy and Action’ forum held last year in Bern (Switzerland), hosted by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI).

As part of the work performed within ESA’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI), “the paper highlights Earth Observation’s strengths in providing objective, repeatable, and globally consistent data, while also acknowledging challenges related to data disaggregation, integration with socio-economic factors, and the need for long-term, robust baselines”, the authors stated.

This research details how Earth observation (EO) data are relevant across the entire adaptation cycle, from initial risk to long-term monitoring and evaluation, focusing on four key sectors covered by the GGA framework.

For agriculture, satellites can monitor water-based variables such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture, as well as the status of surface water storages, the evolution of agricultural pests caused by climate change, and shifts in agro-climatic indices like aridity.

Regarding ecosystems and biodiversity, EO is uniquely positioned to measure the extent and changes of ecosystems like coastal mangroves, which serve as natural defences against sea-level rise and storm surges. Adaptation actions like those targeting the climate change-exacerbated threats of pests, droughts, and wildfires, are essential to protect the diverse environmental and socio-economic functions of forests, which include the provision of raw materials for bioeconomy, serving as a wildlife habitat, prevention of soil erosion, and facilitating carbon sequestration.

Extreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, or hurricanes, can be monitored by EO technologies, which provide insights across the different stages of the disaster risk management cycle, from pre-event assessment to post-event recovery. Additionally, EO data can be used to quantify vulnerability through detailed mapping of inhabited areas, building footprints, roads, and critical infrastructure such as dams.

EO data are instrumental in monitoring health-related hazards, in particular heat extremes, infectious diseases, and air pollution from wildfires, being frequently used as the input for models to produce hazard or exposure maps. While satellite-based data do not directly capture health outcomes, they are a proxy to perform health assessments at different levels: individual, household, cohort, or administrative.

Despite its immense potential, the authors stress that EO is not a solution on its own and provide recommendations for both the policy and scientific communities. They strongly urge negotiators to integrate EO data into the final GGA indicator toolbox that is set to be adopted at COP30.

Simultaneously, the authors call on the EO community to focus on how to operationalise EO-based adaptation data and information to make them easily accessible to policy makers. They also recommend a substantial investment in end-user training and embedding geospatial data science experts within operational agencies, especially in vulnerable regions, as this is essential for effectively using EO data for adaptation solutions.

The article concludes by highlighting that EO data must be integrated with socio-economic and local data to ensure it accurately reflects the context of adaptation and does not overlook the vulnerability of specific, often marginalised populations. 

Rochelle Schneider, Copernicus and Destination Earth Ecosystem Operations Engineer and the second author of the paper, commented: “To track real progress on adaptation, we need data that peacefully crosses borders effortlessly. This is exactly what EO satellites provide — globally harmonised evidence to support collective action against climate change impacts.”

This Nature perspective serves as the foundation for other efforts underway at ESA Φ-lab: Diego Jatobá dos Santos, an International Research Fellow supervised by Rochelle Schneider, is working on a project to assess the climate risks faced by children under different climate zones and climate change scenarios in Brazil, in a fruitful collaboration with UNICEF.

Diego will investigate an adjustment in UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Index (CCRI) for Brazil climate zones, using diverse geospatial datasets and predicting CCRI under different climate change scenarios, with CMIP6 and/or Destination Earth Digital Twin data.

Building on this effort, Φ-lab is currently recruiting a Research Fellow to work on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Climate Adaptation. The new lab member will investigate how AI can play a significant role in climate adaptation, resilience and mitigation.

The full Nature article is available here.

To know more: COP30, ESA Φ-lab, UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Index (CCRI)

The banner image features forests around the Capim River (Rio Capim) in Brazil. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2022), processed by ESA.